„Beijing relied heavily on external demand to offset domestic weakness, posting a record overall trade surplus last year,“ said Song of ING. „The first trade war reinforced China’s quest for tech self-sufficiency, but now the economy is in a much weaker position.“
In response to Trump’s new tariffs, Chinese manufacturers are considering moving production to other countries, passing costs to US customers, and seeking alternative markets. Some companies have already diversified their trade in recent years, with Chinese exports to the US decreasing.
While Beijing has criticized Trump’s new tariffs and threatened to file a lawsuit to the World Trade Organization, analysts believe China’s best strategy may be to quietly cut imports of targeted US products while waiting for a chance to negotiate a new deal.
Overall, Trump’s policies could ultimately strengthen China’s economy by forcing Beijing to focus on difficult structural reforms. However, the situation remains uncertain, with both sides potentially facing further tariffs and trade challenges in the future. Im Jahr 2018 gelang es dem Land, den Wechselkursverfall, die Handelsumlenkung und eine Reduzierung der Gewinnmargen der Exporteure einzusetzen, um die Zölle abzumildern, sagten Analysten von Barclays.
„Die genannten Kanäle haben sich alle erheblich verringert, was auf eine viel größere Auswirkung auf den Handel Chinas in dieser Runde hindeutet“, sagten sie.
Datenvisualisierung von Alan Smith und Haohsiang Ko.